Monday, April 24, 2006

Monday P.M. talking points

A nice tool down the pennant run stretch (hopefully) will be this site, which, by use of a mathematical formula too complicated for me to understand or explain, obtain "true" magic numbers by taking into account what teams have played each other at any point in the season.

Now, a few words on Keith Hernandez.

Keith made some comments about a female trainer in the San Diego dugout over the weekend.

Keith reminds me of a former professor of mine. Great guy, great intentions and everything, but a complete mess socially. Ditto with Seaver, who goes on rambling tangents about wine and his dubious Vietnam-era service record that last for several innings.

I guess we shouldn't expect to much, given the fact that the Metropolitans made Ralph Kiner famous as a color analyst. A few gems:

"All of his saves have come in relief appearances"

"All of the Mets road wins against the Dodgers this year occurred at Dodger Stadium."

"On Fathers Day, we again wish you all happy birthday."

"Solo homers usually come with no one on base."

But as I've said several times on this long, strange, trip called BBPOTS, Hernandez will get the chop before the end of May. Book it.

Today's unbridledly optimistic win total prediction is 115.

Fun with Baseball Prospectus

NL East           W    L     Pct3  Avg W Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs

Mets
12 6 .543 90.4 51.28507 7.48691 58.77198

Braves
9 9 .498 80.6 15.63740 5.82084 21.45825

Phillies
7 10 .466 73.5 5.69280 2.12933 7.82212

Nationals
7 11 .515 81.7 17.64386 6.77644 24.42030

Marlins
5 11 .492 76.9 9.74087 3.63259 13.37346

Sic transit the current BP playoff odds, obtained by simming the season one million times.

I like the fact that our current chances are just under 60 percent. A lot of folks pegged the Metropolitans as a 90-win team before the season, and now they must entrust their fate to David Allen Wright, the all-knower, the doer of all, the most infinite and omnipotent seer in the Ra-mun-rah Vedas.


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